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The 2026 Guide

My #1 Asset Class Hasn’t Changed

Industrial real estate is still Carson's #1 asset class; oil and gas earns a place as a higher-risk diversifier for its tax write-offs and uncorrelated income.

By ·Passive Investments·
The Short Answer

Should oil and gas replace industrial real estate as a top passive investment?

No. Carson's view is that industrial real estate remains the best primary asset class, with oil and gas serving as a complement rather than a replacement. Industrial offers predictable long-term tenants, financeability, income from day one, and supply-constrained locations. Oil and gas adds energy exposure, deep first-year tax write-offs and uncorrelated income, but carries drilling risk, long timelines and declining production.

Key takeaways

  • Carson invested directly in oil fields with active wells, not a fund or royalty stream, and it took about two years before two wells came online.
  • Done right, a single oil well can generate cash flow for 50+ years with substantial tax advantages that many accredited investors overlook.
  • Even major producers like Exxon drill dry holes, as disclosed in their SEC filings, so drilling outcomes are never guaranteed regardless of geology.
  • Carson's suggested hierarchy after stocks and gold: industrial real estate first, other commercial real estate such as multifamily or net lease second, oil and gas third.
  • Secular tailwinds behind industrial real estate include e-commerce, reshoring and AI infrastructure, with Class A shallow-bay buildings offering the most predictability.



Carson's Oil Field Investment: Two Years to Production

But Here’s Why I’m Glad I Drilled Oil.

A few years ago, I invested in some oil fields and it didn’t start well to say the least.

Not a fund. Not a royalty stream. An actual field with wells—with drilling and rework risk, regulatory timelines, operational delays, and all the patience that comes with it.

Over the past few months, my partner found fresh help in one of the fields and almost overnight, two wells are online.

Two years. And I’d probably do it again. But I want to be honest with you about why it’s not my #1 asset class and why that distinction actually matters.

Why Is Industrial Real Estate Still the #1 Asset Class?

Carson ranks industrial first for structural reasons: Fortune 500 tenants on long-term leases, lenders who understand and will finance it, income from day one, supply-constrained land near logistics hubs, and lasting tailwinds from e-commerce, reshoring and AI infrastructure. Class A shallow-bay buildings with institutional tenants offer the predictability he wants for most of his capital.

When I think about where I want the majority of my capital working, the answer is industrial real estate. It’s not sentimental—it’s structural.

Here’s what makes industrial CRE my #1:

  • Predictable tenants — Fortune 500 companies on long-term leases don’t vanish overnight
  • Financeable — lenders understand it, which means you can leverage it intelligently
  • Income-producing from day one — no waiting two years to see cash flow
  • Supply-constrained markets — you can’t just build more land near a major logistics hub
  • Secular tailwinds — e-commerce, reshoring, and AI infrastructure aren’t going anywhere

Class A industrial—shallow bay, well-located, institutional tenants—gives you the kind of predictability that lets you sleep at night. It’s not flashy. That’s the point.

Why Add Oil and Gas to a Real Estate Portfolio?

For diversification. Done right, a single oil well can produce cash flow for 50+ years with substantial tax advantages, and the income isn't tied to real estate. But oil is riskier than industrial: drilling outcomes are never guaranteed, permits and logistics can stretch timelines to two years or more, and prices and production both fluctuate.

Because diversification isn’t just a theory—it’s a survival strategy.

Oil and gas is one of the most overlooked passive income streams available to accredited investors. Done right, a single well can generate cash flow for 50+ years—with substantial tax advantages that most investors never think to ask about.

But I want to be straight with you: oil isn’t #1 for a reason.

  • It’s riskier. Drilling outcomes are never guaranteed, no matter how good the geology looks. Exxon and the majors have dry holes, it’s in their SEC filings.
  • It also takes time. Two years is a long time, but not totally unusual. Permits, regulations, logistics, equipment breaks—it all stacks up.
  • Prices come and go. Production declines over time. It’s not a forever-stable asset the way a leased industrial building feels.

So why own it? Because it adds something real estate can’t give you: energy exposure, deep tax write-offs in year one, and an uncorrelated income stream. It’s not a replacement for real estate—it’s a complement to it.

On top of all of that I knew to back off real estate when the time was right, 2021.

That’s the whole argument for diversification in one story.

Diversification means building a foundation strong enough that one misstep doesn’t wipe you out.

How Should You Rank Industrial CRE, Other CRE, and Oil and Gas?

Carson's ranking puts industrial real estate first as the predictable, financeable foundation, other commercial real estate such as multifamily, mixed-use and net lease second depending on market and deal, and oil and gas third for its higher risk, longer timelines, real upside and tax advantages. Diversification means sizing each asset intentionally, not scattering capital.

If you’re building a portfolio for the long game after stocks and gold, here’s roughly how I’d stack it:

  • #1 — Industrial Real Estate Predictable, financeable, long-term income. Your foundation.
  • #2 — Other Commercial Real Estate Multifamily, mixed-use, net lease. Depends on the market and the deal.
  • #3 — Oil & Gas Higher risk, longer timelines, but real upside and serious tax advantages. Earns its place—just not the top spot.

Being diversified doesn’t mean being scattered. It means being intentional about what each asset is supposed to do and sizing accordingly.

📅  Join Me on the April 23rd in Murfreesboro, TN

I’m hosting a private event on April 23rd for entrepreneurs and real estate investors in the Nashville area. If you’re thinking about how to position your capital—real estate, oil, or otherwise—this is a good room to be in.

Check out my podcast at: https://carsonscorner.media

Disclaimer: This newsletter reflects the opinion of the Author and is not financial, tax, or legal advice or the offer to buy or sell a security. Business, property ownership, and investing involves risk. Always do your own due diligence and consult your tax, legal, and financial advisors.


Frequently Asked Questions about Industrial Real Estate vs. Oil and Gas

Why is industrial real estate Carson's #1 asset class?

Carson ranks industrial real estate first for structural reasons: Fortune 500 tenants on long-term leases, lenders who understand and finance it, income from day one, supply-constrained land near logistics hubs, and tailwinds from e-commerce, reshoring and AI infrastructure. Class A shallow-bay industrial with institutional tenants offers the predictability he wants for most of his capital.

What are the main risks of investing directly in oil wells?

Direct oil investments carry drilling risk, since outcomes are never guaranteed and even majors like Exxon report dry holes in SEC filings. They also take time, with permits, regulations, logistics and equipment failures stacking up; Carson's field took two years to bring two wells online. Prices fluctuate and production declines over time.

Why would a real estate investor add oil and gas?

Oil and gas adds things real estate cannot: energy exposure, deep tax write-offs in year one, and an income stream uncorrelated with property markets. Done right, a single well can produce cash flow for 50+ years. Carson treats it as a complement to real estate for diversification, not a replacement for it.

How should a long-term portfolio rank industrial CRE, other CRE, and oil and gas?

After stocks and gold, Carson stacks industrial real estate first as the foundation for predictable, financeable income. Other commercial real estate such as multifamily, mixed-use and net lease comes second, depending on market and deal. Oil and gas ranks third: higher risk and longer timelines, but real upside and significant tax advantages.

What does diversification mean in Carson's investment approach?

Diversification means being intentional about what each asset is supposed to do and sizing it accordingly, not being scattered. The goal is a foundation strong enough that one misstep does not wipe an investor out. Carson also cites backing off real estate in 2021 as part of the same disciplined approach.

Industrial Investing Questions Real Estate Investors Ask

Industrial remains the core of this portfolio approach, so these answers cover how it compares with other asset classes, how to evaluate it, and where niche and AI-related opportunities fit. They are educational, not investment advice.

Industrial versus other asset classes

How is industrial real estate different from multifamily, retail, and office?

Industrial typically has fewer tenants, longer leases (often 3 to 10 years or more), and NNN structures where tenants pay most operating costs, so management is lighter than multifamily and capital needs are lower than office or retail. The tradeoff is concentration: one vacancy can take a building from full to empty, with months of re-leasing downtime. Demand comes from logistics, manufacturing, and e-commerce rather than household formation or office employment.

Is preferring industrial over multifamily a reasonable investment choice?

Yes, for investors who value lighter management, NNN leases, and longer terms and can tolerate tenant concentration. Multifamily offers more diversified income, broader financing options including agency debt, and steady housing demand, but more intensive operations. Many investors hold both. The right choice depends on your capital, risk tolerance, local market knowledge, and how hands-on you want to be, and the specific deal matters more than the asset class.

Is industrial or multifamily harder to develop?

Industrial is usually simpler to build vertically but more demanding in site work. Warehouses are large single structures with fewer trades and finishes, but they need big flat sites, heavy slab and foundation work, truck access, stormwater systems, and sometimes major power upgrades. Multifamily involves more complex vertical construction, interior finishes, and lease-up, and often more neighborhood opposition during entitlements. Either can be harder depending on the site and jurisdiction.

Evaluating industrial and flex properties

What should investors look for or avoid in industrial and flex properties?

Look for functional buildings in established logistics or service corridors with adequate clear height, dock and drive-in loading, truck court depth, power, parking, and highway access, and rents at or below market. Be cautious with obsolete low-clear buildings, specialized single-user facilities, environmental contamination, weak-credit or short-term tenants, and markets with heavy new construction. For flex, check the office build-out percentage, since excess office narrows tenant demand.

What are common misconceptions about industrial and flex real estate?

The biggest is that industrial is passive and low-risk because leases are NNN; landlords still face rollover, tenant credit risk, roof and structural costs, and environmental liability. Others are that all industrial benefits equally from e-commerce (location and functionality decide that), that flex behaves like warehouse space (it leases more like small-business space, with shorter terms), and that more clear height always matters to small-bay tenants.

What makes industrial harder to underwrite than multifamily?

Industrial income depends on a few tenants, so underwriting requires judging each tenant's credit, likelihood of renewal, and the building's appeal to replacement tenants rather than averaging hundreds of leases. Market rent data is thinner, re-leasing costs (downtime, tenant improvements, and commissions) are lumpy, and building functionality such as clear height, loading, and power varies widely. Lease abstracts and an honest rollover downside case are central.

What resources teach industrial real estate beyond e-commerce demand?

Useful sources include quarterly industrial market reports from major brokerage research teams, NAIOP and SIOR education and publications, CCIM coursework on commercial underwriting, and local economic development and utility data on manufacturing and power. Reading actual industrial leases, building specifications, and appraisals teaches the details faster than general books. Conversations with active industrial brokers and property managers fill in local rent and demand dynamics.

Direct ownership versus syndication

Is it better to buy a NNN industrial property directly and outsource management than to invest with a syndicator?

It depends on your capital, time, and expertise. Buying directly gives you control, the depreciation, and no sponsor fees, and NNN industrial is relatively easy to manage with a third-party manager, but you carry single-asset concentration and own every leasing, financing, and capital decision. A syndication offers diversification and professional sourcing for a smaller check, at the cost of fees, illiquidity, and dependence on the sponsor.

How should investors evaluate an industrial real estate syndicator?

Look at track record through a full cycle, meaning realized deals rather than projected returns, along with the team's industrial-specific leasing and development experience, fee structure, how much of its own capital it invests, and its debt strategy. Ask for past investor reports and references, and have the offering documents reviewed for the waterfall, capital-call, and sponsor-removal terms. Check the sponsor's regulatory history and public SEC filings.

How does asset management at an industrial owner differ from multifamily?

Industrial asset management centers on a small number of high-value relationships: lease negotiations and renewals, tenant credit monitoring, capital projects like roofs and paving, CAM reconciliations, and leasing vacancies through brokers. Multifamily asset management is volume-driven, overseeing on-site teams, daily leasing, unit turnover, rent optimization, and resident issues. Industrial has fewer events, but each renewal or vacancy moves value far more.

Niche and specialty assets

Which niche commercial real estate asset class could become the next institutional trend after self-storage, cold storage, and outdoor storage?

No one can know for sure, but niches drawing growing institutional attention include truck parking and trailer storage, small-bay industrial, powered land near data center clusters, cGMP and life science manufacturing space, and aviation hangars. The pattern is consistent: a fragmented sector of small owners, durable demand, limited new supply, and room to professionalize. Niche assets also come with thinner data and fewer buyers at exit.

How are cannabis or cGMP facilities underwritten when build costs are so high?

Underwriters separate the core real estate from the specialized build-out. They value the base building on its alternative-use value as generic industrial space, treat specialized improvements as tenant-specific with limited residual value, and lean heavily on tenant credit, lease term, and guarantees. Cannabis facilities also face federal legal restrictions that limit bank financing, so yields are higher. Many deals are sale-leasebacks with rent set to recover build-out cost over the lease term.

Is there demand for equity capital in airplane hangar development, and how do those investments work?

Yes. Hangar demand at many general aviation airports exceeds supply, often with long waitlists, and developers regularly seek equity. Most hangars sit on airport land under a ground lease from the airport sponsor, so investors own the improvements for a fixed term, often 20 to 40 years, rather than the land, which shapes value and exit options. Underwrite the ground lease term, reversion clause, waitlist depth, and airport and FAA approval requirements.

AI and the market outlook

How will AI affect commercial real estate demand across sectors?

The clearest effect is on data centers and the power, land, and industrial supply chains that support them, such as substations, electrical equipment manufacturing, and powered industrial sites. Office demand could soften in roles AI automates, while logistics may gain from AI-driven efficiency rather than lose space. Effects on retail and multifamily are likely indirect, through employment and incomes. Forecasts vary widely, so location and power availability matter more than broad predictions.

Apart from data centers, how can investors gain exposure to both AI and commercial real estate?

Options include land with power and fiber near data center clusters, industrial space leased to suppliers of electrical gear, cooling equipment, and construction materials, workforce housing near large data center campuses, and energy assets, including natural gas production and mineral or royalty interests that supply power generation. Each carries its own sector risk, and AI demand is a tailwind, not a guarantee. Owning the scarce inputs of power, land, and fiber is the most direct approach.

Which commercial real estate asset classes have the clearest path to success over the next 24 months?

No sector is guaranteed, but asset classes with constrained new supply and durable demand look best positioned: functional small- and mid-bay industrial, powered land and data center-related industrial, necessity retail with little new construction, and multifamily in markets where the construction pipeline has slowed. Older office and other properties with heavy capital needs face the steepest challenges. Underwrite the specific market and building, because sector trends rarely rescue a bad deal.

Definitions and next steps

What counts as industrial real estate?

Industrial real estate is property used to make, store and move goods: warehouses and distribution buildings, manufacturing space, flex and small-bay buildings, and niches such as cold storage, outdoor storage and truck parking. Demand comes from logistics, manufacturing and e-commerce rather than household formation or office employment, and leases are typically longer and NNN, with tenants paying most operating costs.

How can I invest in industrial real estate with Carson Jones?

Carson works with high-net-worth individuals, family offices, business owners and sophisticated investors as both a broker and a principal, so the conversation can cover buying an industrial property directly, selling one, or participating alongside his equity partners. Share your budget, target markets and whether you want direct NNN ownership or a passive stake — contact Carson.

Sources

Primary sources for the rules and figures cited on this page, checked October 22, 2026. Laws and rates change — confirm current requirements with your CPA, attorney or lender.

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Carson Jones

Carson Jones

Founder · Passive Investments · eXp Commercial

Carson Jones is the host of Carson's Corner: Commercial Real Estate, author of The Red Flag Playbook, a licensed commercial real estate advisor and business broker, and the founder of Passive Investments. With 18 years of experience as an entrepreneur and 12 years specializing in passive investing, Carson works with high-net-worth individuals, family offices, business owners, and sophisticated investors as a broker and principal.

Carson holds a BBA in Finance from Baylor University and his Tennessee commercial real estate license (#382989). He actively pursues acquisition and equity opportunities across the United States and abroad through a worldwide network of qualified buyers, family offices, institutional investors, and top-tier developers.

This article is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be considered tax, legal, accounting, or investment advice. Tax laws are complex and change frequently. Always consult your CPA, attorney, and financial advisor before making any financial, tax, or investment decisions. All investments and property ownership carry risk, including the potential loss of principal. Carson Jones, Passive Investments, and the author make no guarantees regarding the tax treatment, performance, or outcome of any specific investment strategy described in this article.